What is common between the crash in global markets and the massive protests breaking out in Bangladesh against Prime Minister Hasina Wajid’s authoritarian government? Or between an updated Twitter algorithm and the total collapse of the military establishment in Pakistan? How about rising inflation in Yemen and growing racial riots in European cities?
What may appear to be seemingly disparate events on the surface are, in fact, deeply interwoven with each other in a certain time and space when significant macro and micro variables are aligned to co-produce a Great War.
Alignment is an underrated concept, but in domains where its value is understood, it is reckoned as a powerful force of both creation and destruction.
What we are witnessing right now around the world is an imminent alignment between macro and micro variables of chaos taking form that has the potential for extraordinary destruction.
For example, the looming economic recession with markets undergoing volatility, two proxy wars in highly volatile regions—Gaza and Ukraine—contested elections around the world, and the rise of authoritarianism throughout the developing world, when aligned with major technological and demographic shifts, present a situation where a great war becomes a natural byproduct of this alignment.
It is rather easy to predict war since that is ‘supposedly’ the natural human state, but to predict a Great War requires close attention to the alignment between macro and micro variables of chaos.
As of Aug 5th, it will require a tremendous force to undo the alignment from taking its complete form. Until that happens, as Gramsci puts it, ‘now is the time of monsters’
Chaos on top of missing decisive global leadership to steer the world out of this crisis will be discussed in the decades to come. The international norms, put in place after WW2, are being ripped apart as they have lost traction amid numerous violations by the very protectors of those norms. Sad times ahead