Gaming Imran Khan's Exit

The word is that Imran Khan is on his way out of the prison cell where he has been incarcerated for over a year. The question is, what changed? Let’s game it out.

From a game theory perspective, Imran Khan will be released only when the cost of keeping him imprisoned surpasses the cost of letting him walk free. This raises two more questions: 1) Cost to whom? and 2) What kind of costs?

Regarding the "cost to whom," there are three levels to consider: cost to the country, cost to the institution, and cost to the leadership. Unfortunately, the latter trumps the first two in undemocratic and personalized governance systems where individual leaders hold institutions and the country hostage to their personal interests. However, when chaos spirals out of control, as it has now, the leadership risks being ousted either by the very state institutions or, in the worst-case scenario, by the public that is unable and unwilling to pay the costs of leadership adventures.

Now, what kind of costs are we looking at? This is where it gets more complicated, given how this situation has evolved into a high-stakes game over the last two years, including two assassination attempts on Imran Khan, attacks on his wife’s dignity, his political party, and his closest aides. Even by the abnormal standards of Pakistani politics, things have gone too far. This suggests that those involved understand there is nothing short of Article 6 charges and potential court-martials at play here. There appears to be no good outcome, and the leadership is now reduced to choosing between a bad and a terrible outcome.

Even the option of eliminating Imran Khan is too late and too dangerous now, with no appetite for it among key stakeholders internally and especially externally.

The fact is, there isn’t much left in this game—not even ego—just the plain fear of one side realizing it went too far without an exit plan in a game it is neither trained nor meant to play.

The only exit plan that they are left with, is Imran Khan’s exit.