Starting this Sunday, I am launching a new interview series in a 3-question format with top experts from the policy, research, and innovation sectors. The aim is to gather their perspectives on the global chaos and explore how best to navigate it.
My first guest is my dear friend Robin Raphel, one of the sharpest minds in foreign policy and someone I deeply admire for her wisdom and insight.
Robin has spent 40 years in various U.S. foreign affairs agencies, including the U.S. Department of State, USAID, and the Department of Defense. She has served as Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, Ambassador to Tunisia, Vice President of the National Defense University, and Deputy Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. Having worked with numerous U.S. administrations over four decades, I asked her to help make sense of the chaos we are witnessing globally, particularly in the United States.
Here’s what she had to say:
Q1: How do you explain the chaos we are witnessing around the world today? What is driving it?
Those are really difficult questions, and I’m not sure I have the perfect answers. What’s disconcerting to me is that Steve Bannon's argument—that it’s time to destroy and reconstruct the administrative state—might have merit. The idea that we are in the "fourth turning," or the "crisis" phase of an 80-year cycle starting after WWII, doesn’t seem entirely far-fetched to me, despite my reluctance toward that theoretical framework.
It’s evident that the liberal world order is unraveling, and institutions no longer seem fit for purpose. This seems to have happened because the U.S. became complacent, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. We didn’t adjust to the "rise of the rest" even though we saw it coming, nor did we foresee that the internet and social media would expose our own past mistakes.
9/11 led us to double down on American power, particularly military power, which proved to be a miscalculation. That simply delayed the inevitable reckoning we’re now facing in places like Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran. The problem with the Biden administration is that it seems stuck in the past, trying to recreate a world that is rapidly disappearing. Once again, we've lost valuable time.
Q2: What do you foresee as an outcome of this chaos? A new world? Or more of the old world?
I think the outcome will be some form of a multi-polar world, where the U.S. still holds a leadership position but must share power with others. This should be achievable without a revolution, but it will require the kind of leadership we haven’t seen in a long time. It’s unclear whether Kamala Harris, who is closely aligned with the Biden worldview, can provide that kind of leadership.
The key is to finally be honest about what the world really looks like and to take other nations' interests seriously. The mainstream media has failed miserably in its role of keeping the public well-informed; it has essentially become a mouthpiece for the administration. Those in alternative media who try to offer a different perspective often face harassment from the authorities (like Scott Ritter, among others). This is troubling. We need to stop deceiving ourselves and get serious about resolving conflicts rather than perpetuating them.
Domestically, the U.S. faces structural problems as well. The public education system is faltering, the healthcare system is a disgrace, law enforcement is out of control in some areas, and income inequality is growing. Complacency played a role here, along with the rise of individualism and meritocracy, which has helped perpetuate privilege across generations. This helps explain the revolt against elites, translating into support for Trump.
In short, we need a serious reevaluation of our place in the world and our success as a nation. It’s a huge challenge.
Q3: What advice would you give to policymakers on how to navigate the chaos and make the most of it?
This is just my off-the-cuff response, but it’s mostly common sense rather than anything profound. The U.S. needs to start being honest with itself, which we haven’t done in a long time. Once we do that, the path forward will become clearer. Many countries in the West are facing similar issues. For instance, nations like Pakistan are being forced to reckon with the fact that their populations are now much more aware of how elites have been running things for their own benefit, and the people are demanding change. The risks of things spiraling out of control are greater there, but the U.S. and other Western countries tend to have more resilience due to their wealth and more effective governance below the national level.