Interview: Sujan Chinoy on Chaos

This week in the Interview Series on Chaos, I speak with Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, a renowned and globally respected former diplomat from India. Amb. Chinoy is the Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi and served 37 years in the Indian Foreign Service, including as the Indian Ambassador to Japan. In addition to his diplomatic career, he is also a talented sitar player and has appeared in a Gujarati film.

I first met Amb. Chinoy in 2021 at a global think tank summit in Manama, Bahrain, where I was immediately inspired by his insights during the two-day conference.

In this interview, Amb. Chinoy shares his perspective on the current global chaos and how he believes it will unfold. I do hope that you find inspiration in his conceptualisation of chaos and his wisdom in how to navigate it.

Q1: How do you explain the Chaos we are witnessing around the world today? What is driving it?

Chaos is not a new phenomenon. Our Universe was born out of utter chaos. And yet, the laws of Nature and physics emerged with atoms and molecules relating to one another with predictable outcomes. No era in history has been free of inter-state conflict, conquest and destruction, of some of the most visible symbols of human civilization. Think of the ancient cities, libraries and architectural wonders lost to past wars and capriciousness.

In human society as in international relations we yearn for Order but the character of Order is complex. It is not necessarily free of modus vivendi based on inequality, exploitation and domination. Colonial rule epitomised a certain Order in its time but it was neither benign nor respectful of the equality of peoples.

The contemporary global Order, as represented by the United Nations and dominated by privileged permanent members of Security Council, emerged in 1945 from the Chaos of World War II. It followed unsuccessful attempts in previous decades to create Order and eschew Chaos. Eight decades on, it no longer reflects the changes since in the balance of power nor meets the aspirations of the global majority for peace and security.

Power waxes and wanes. Change is an ineluctable tide. Chaos is inevitable if privileged nations fail to respond geopolitical  and geo-economic changes. Resistance to change fuels Chaos. What is different now from the Chaos of the great wars is that the next world war could fundamentally destroy  human civilization, with nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence in full play.

Q2: What do you foresee as an outcome of this Chaos? A New world? More of an old world?

Chaos and Order are cyclical in nature. They are inseparable.  Global Order does not easily lend itself to fundamental reform if it implies renunciation of wealth, power and privilege. A global Order is neither created nor dismantled easily. Hence, its imperfections and blemishes lead to fractured consensus, tensions and conflicts. We are currently in one such cyclical phase in which privileged powers are involved in protracted conflicts. Dominant powers are struggling to retain dominance. Prosperous nations appear determined to maintain their lead. Rising powers are ambitious and increasingly bold, with fewer consequences for their strategic autonomy.

Structurally, a new global Order can only be created if the old Order gives way. Unfortunately, this implies more Chaos, more wars, and a fresh set of victors and vanquished.

Q3: What advice would you give to the policy leaders on how to navigate the chaos to make the most out of it?

If good sense prevails, which is but rare in history, global leaders must avoid Chaos and try and build a new Order without the epiphany of cataclysmic wars, death and destruction. The Covid-19 pandemic unleased Chaos within Order and compelled the world to think and behave differently. Now, it is time to seek a new peace in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

The primary responsibility lies on the shoulders of the privileged permanent members of the UN Security Council and the rich and powerful nations of the world. It is they who must desist from proxy wars. They possess the financial means and technologies to bring about transformative change, including combating climate change.It is incumbent on them to (1) reconcile differences, (2) reform the UN Security Council and apex decision-making structures, including MDBs and IFIs to make them more inclusive, and,  (3) build a values-based future for humanity. Developing nations must co-operate in this endeavour.

Like Order, Chaos is neither static nor perennial. It forces change in thinking and behaviour. It can offer an opportunity to press the reset button. In fact, Chaos in the knowledge domain is necessary for meaningful change and progress. Chaos promotes out-of-box thinking and fosters new ideas. Chaos created by the disruptive march of technology and big data has spawned AI which can synthesise the voluminous data and myriad variables that are integral to decision-making for better outcomes. If used ethically, AI can help reduce the margin of error, avoid Armageddon and help introduce a new Order.