Military vs Democracy: Measuring Public Perception through AI

After our successful run in the US elections, I recently deployed 3rd Eye, our AI platform to run real-time public pulse on the crisis in Pakistan. We customised our AI model to specifically look at the public perceptions on Imran Khan vs Gen Asim Munir, without data selection or training bias, and the results provide clear sense of what the predominant public mood really is as of Dec 27 2024.

Imran Khan: Approval Rate: 65% Disapproval Rate: 35%

Gen. Asim Munir: Approval Rate: 25% Disapproval Rate: 75%

The data is very clear: It's not only that Imran Khan is the most popular leader in the country, but that Gen Asim Munir is perhaps the most unpopular military leader in Pakistan's long history where Chief of Army Staff's are usually 5 times more popular than any political leader of the time. This trend has clearly shifted, and a civilian political leader (Imran Khan) has a clear and historic monopoly on public trust and approval.

Here is where it gets more interesting when you run temporal analysis on each: If you compare the sentiment on Gen Asim Munir between December 2023 and December 2024, you notice a sharp decline from 55% approval rate to 25% approval in 1 year. Meanwhile Disapproval rate jumped from 45% to 75% over the same period. In case of Imran Khan, he maintains a steady 65% approval and 35% disapproval rate over the course of a year that demonstrates a strong and stable public support. It also indicates that Imran Khan has hit the ceiling of his public support in the country.

Last comes the most exciting part when you compare the public trust and approval rate of the civilian political leadership. There is not even a comparison, with Imran Khan alone carrying more public approval than rest every single political leader, family and dynasty combined.

Imran Khan - 55%

Bilawal Bhutto - 20%

Nawaz Sharif - 15%

Maryam Nawaz - 7%

Shahbaz Sharif - 2%

Asif Zardari - 1%.

These numbers are embarrassing if you are Nawaz Sharif who is trailing behind Bilawal Bhutto in public approval rate. As for Maryam Nawaz, she really needs to rethink her PR machine which it appears to be operating in an echo chamber to only convince her of her popularity, not the public. Rest Shahbaz Sharif and Asif Zardari, well the numbers speak for themselves.

You can censor media, rig surveys, switch of internet and ban social media, but the public perception finds its way out. And the numbers here tell a story of our political reality that you can't hide. The writing is on the wall.