Peace Gaming India-Pakistan Standoff

Since both India and Pakistan are busy "War Gaming", let me try to do the exact opposite: "Peace Gaming" on India-Pakistan Standoff.

Naturally, what I'm about to suggest may not be liked by the leadership on either side, but it is exactly what they need to hear right now. Conflicts may be unavoidable but what is more important is how we resolve it and how we use the crisis to transform it into a collaboration.

Here is my preliminary framework on resolving India-Pakistan standoff and a potential pathway to permanent peace. I went back to my notes from William Ury's training session on negotiations that I was part of while at Yale in 2023 to come up with a 5 step framework:

Step 1: Go to the 'F*kin' Balcony: The fog of war only allows bad decisions. While the media is in overdrive and extremist elements on both sides want action, the public intellectuals, and responsible citizens on both sides must 'switch sides' and run contrarian view to their respective leadership forcing them to not act in haste and discover more options; because there are always options. For that we must not rely on the obvious and identify the actors in the problem.

Step 2: Identify the Actors in the Problem: There are multiple actors in this India-Pakistan quagmire: India, Pakistan, Modi Government, the Pakistan Army, Kashmiris and the United States each that have their own stakes in the game and are rarely aligned. For any resolution to happen between India and Pakistan, it is critical to identify and isolate the actors that are part of the problem, and those that are part of the solution. To do that let's figure out which actor is working for what interest.

Step 3: Focus on Interests, Not Positions” It is in the interest of those in power to take hard positions in times of crisis; but hard positions can take us only so far which is why we must focus on identifying the interests of each actor in the game.

Indian Interest: Justice for Victims, End of terrorism, and Stable Neighborhood

Modi Government Interest: Punish Pakistan Army, Domestic Authoritarianism, and Regional Hegemony.

Pakistan Interest: Sovereignty, Stability and Prosperity.

Pakistan Army Interest: Domestic Authoritarianism, Geopolitical Relevance, and Punishing India.

Kashmiris: Sovereignty, Stability and Security

American Interest: Ensure stability of the Pakistan Army, and Avoid full out India-Pakistan War.

One quick glance on the interests exposes it all; neither Pakistan Army and nor Modi Government are part of the solution; in fact they are the reasons why the problem exists in the first place.

The Pakistan Army is not part of the solution given its domestic politics, low approval rate, and a history of conflict with India (Kargil, Mumbai). Neither is the regime in Pakistan that lacks public legitimacy and credibility, especially at the time of crisis. The only serious contender to talk peace from Pakistan is former Prime Minister Imran Khan who has both, the public support and ability to deliver on negotiations.

The same thing could be said about the Modi government that may be elected by the Indian people, but is no less authoritarian with grand hegemonic plans and ambitions in the region. Therefore, Modi government is also a roadblock to any solution in the conflict. In the absence of an alternate, the Indian parliament could act as a front face in the negotiations.

Once we have identified all the stakeholders in the game, and their interests we can now identify common denominators and invent options that can force these problematic actors to reach consensus.

Step 4: Find Common Denominator / Invent Options: Going by the data of last 25 years of India-Pakistan diplomatic and military standoffs, the following 4 common denominators can be agreed by all sides that seek solution of the conflict:

1. Ending Terrorism in all forms

2. Ending destabilisation efforts in all forms

3. Promote Democracy in Pakistan

4. End Authoritarianism in the region

For far too long the United States, India and even the people in Pakistan have welcomed and tolerated military takeovers and dictatorships in Pakistan. The destabilisation we see in Pakistan and the region today is primarily a product of this short-term approach on supporting dictators in Pakistan over civilian democratic leaders.

For India-Pakistan peace to materialise and regional stability to become possible, the Democracy in Pakistan is not only the common denominator but also a fundamental pre-requisite.

Step 5: The Third Side Approach - Build Peace Infrastructure: The critical problem between India and Pakistan is the anatomy and nature of the two states. India is a democracy that is demonstrating a slide towards authoritarianism but a boosting economy, while Pakistan is a fully militarised state state with a weak economy where democracy is only a cover to avoid sanctions while the Pakistan Army makes decisions.

This disparity is one big reason for recurring standoffs between the two countries.

Verdict: I believe that the only way forward for India-Pakistan peace is through an investment in democracy infrastructure in Pakistan and a reversal of growing authoritarianism in India. True peace can only emerge from leaders and public intellectuals that represent and serve the public interest on both sides of the border. For that to happen, the right people having the right conversations to achieve the right thing with right intentions is all that is needed.