US Diplomacy during India-Pakistan War: What Changed?

Friends, analysts and experts in both India and Pakistan are wondering: What changed between Trump and Modi relation that the US behaved surprisingly different during the recent India-Pakistan war?

Let me try to explain this, as I did previously in the days leading up to the India-Pakistan war.

Fundamentally, India was unable to distinguish between Trump 45 and Trump 47 - two different Presidents and entirely different admins. Some of this was due to complacency, some of it entirely out of India's control, but a lot of it was due to India's growing confirmation bias over the years - overconfidence in its own abilities and underestimating the changing world around it.

Let me take a dig at the third one. The reason why Trump 47 responded the way he responded during the War (and continues to do so) is primarily because of 2 reasons:

1. India's diplomatic behaviour over the years that pissed off many of its allies.

It really starts with India's most prized possession: its neutrality and non-alignment. Ask any diplomat or policy leader in DC who is the most difficult partner to deal with, and a unanimous answer would be India. India has refused to play ball with the US over playing camp politics with China, testing American patience for too long. But it really got bad in 2022 with the Ukraine War and how India aggressively exerted its neutrality refusing to tow the Western line on the war. Moreover, at the peak of sanctions on Russia, India went ahead on oil deals with Russia that was deeply felt as offensive by the Western powers that silently gulped it down. But it doesn't end there, what really put off the Western leadership was the Indian intelligence agency undertaking hit jobs in Western countries; the souring with Justin Trudeau nudged the 5 Eyes to see India in a different way. This is the context of Trump 47 who with "America first" slogan is trying to hammer India to align in the right direction which works for the US, and not India alone.

2. It's the Crypto, Stupid!

Trump 47 has brought forth a complete new set of power brokers. DC isn't run by traditional lobbyists or deal makers anymore; it's run by tech, crypto and critical minerals (again to do with tech) folks that have Trump's both ears. While India feels it's too big to adapt or budge to pressure, the neighbouring Pakistan teetering on collapse easily jumped the wagon to dance on the Trump 47 tunes presenting Pakistan as a crypto capital, critical minerals haven, and partner in CT helping get bad guys - basically all the stuff that makes Trump look good, and his team wealthy. India is nowhere in this conversation and hence doesn't have the same leverage that Pakistan has to offer: pipe dreams and feel good deals to President Trump which may never materialise but gives the sense of winning.

This essentially explains why Trump 47 behaved differently during the India-Paksitan war, and what is his expectations out of India.