US Elections: Is it Over for Kamala Harris?

The data doesn't look good for Democrats

As of October 1, 2024, the path to victory for Vice President Kamala Harris appears very difficult, if not entirely impossible.

Since the last presidential debate, I have collected sample data from three traditionally blue states, two red states, and three swing states. The results are not promising for Harris at all.

In the three traditionally blue states, where one would expect Harris to be strong—especially after Biden’s withdrawal—the sentiment remains deeply against Democrats in general, and her candidacy in particular. This is especially true for old-school Democrats who struggle to connect with Harris’s ultra-left orientation, and younger Democrats disillusioned with the party establishment for its unwavering support for Israel. Even in these traditionally Democratic states, voters seem less motivated and enthusiastic about the election, a mood Harris has been unable to change despite an excellent debate performance that briefly offered an opportunity to build momentum.

Now, if the public pulse in these blue states is unfavorable for Harris, the outlook in swing and red states is even bleaker. Of the three swing states I analyzed, two are leaning heavily toward Trump, with only one potentially remaining a battleground state where Harris is tied with Trump. However, my assessment is that even this third state will likely flip to Trump if Harris's campaign continues as is.

In the red states, the mood is jubilant and defiant. There is strong confidence that Trump will win, a confidence starkly absent on the Harris side, despite national surveys showing her leading across the country.

Harris continued the disastrous 'lesser of the two evil' narrative line that Biden had set himself up for; in contrast, Trump is playing the 'saviour' pitch. With two attacks on his life, it works like magic on the support base. Harris is taking a significant hit due to her stance on immigration, her association with Biden, her unproven track record, and her ultra-liberal leanings. In contrast, even the criticisms on Trump seem to work in his favor, particularly among his base, bolstering his credibility with his anti-war, anti-illegal immigration, and anti-ultra-liberal positions.

Unless something major happens in October that radically shifts the dynamics in Harris’s favor, it seems highly unlikely that she will win this race.

It would take nothing short of a miracle for Harris to turn this around.