US Returns to Pakistan: What Now?

Here is what is happening on the US-Pakistan front and my policy suggestions:

By now we have enough signals on what Trump's policy on Pakistan is turning out to be. Unfortunately, It's more of the same that didn't work out for the last 50 years, and unlikely to work now either.

I was putting a major effort and hoping that Trump admin would break this inertia on traditional US-Pakistan relations and course correct from an engagement that prefers dealing with brutal military dictators and political dynasties over civilian democratic leaders in Pakistan.

In my book on the US-Pakistan relations I highlighted how both countries have tried to build a bilateral relation playing on each others vulnerabilities that has resulted in a net loss for each other in the last several decades. For

Trump admin at the moment, Pakistan is a mid priority country which means they want 'lowest effort, highest yield' bilateral configuration with Pakistan.

The continuation of current military regime in Pakistan provides that 'low effort' but 'highest yield' in terms of major concessions on a few things that are of interest to the US; and no, it's neither minerals, nor CT.

The 'promise of trade' is more powerful than the actual trade and partnership itself in terms of behaviour change. Therefore under this promise of 'Minerals', 'Trade', and 'CT' partnership both the US and Pakistan are yet again playing each other. The US seeks to only secure 2 real objectives; pushback on China in Pakistan, and ensure that Pakistan's rapid nuclear and ICBMs development or terrorist market doesn't go out of control. As for the military regime in Pakistan, given its lack of credibility, it only wants to figure out a way to stay in power in Pakistan via US endorsement.

But this new configuration will miserably fail before it even comes into action.

Because for Pakistan, this new configuration runs contrary to its core national interest and foreign policy, unleashing a potential nightmare scenario with China. If China starts to flex its leverage on Pakistan as a result, Pakistan won't be able to afford it, and without strategic US support, Pakistan will soon find itself isolated by both, the US and China. There is not a single win situation for Pakistan here because the US just won't care enough, and the Chinese will care way too much.

The real problem here is the current military regime in Pakistan that is deeply unpopular, undemocratic and lacks public approval. Such a regime is most vulnerable and desperate to make exaggerated promises that It can't deliver and compromise on national interest, security and sovereignty to stay one more day in power.

I can totally understand that for the US or any other global power, such a weak and unpopular regime in a foreign country is most tempting as it delivers best on short-term US goals; but my entire book is really about arguing with data and evidence against this US approach and mindset which will backfire because such regimes may appear weak and vulnerable but are able to exert tremendous agency to embroil the US in their mess and will deliver zilch in return. Pakistan has done this before, and it will do it again because that's the only option it really has.

The US and Pakistan have played this short-term stunt way too many times, and the results are well documented and known; why go down the same path that burns, all over again?

What I genuinely advise for the betterment of both countries and their people is rather a simple approach:

1. For the US, it needs to simply support democracy and credible public leadership in Pakistan. An independent, democratic and stable Pakistan is the best deterrence against Chinese influence, Nuclear Madness and Terrorism, if these are the concerns.

2. For the ruling elite in Pakistan it really needs to give up on this obsessive 'geopolitics' con to sustain its brutal military rule in the country that is coming to majorly damage its sovereignty and national stability. It can't continue to play this game for long, and will implode.

Under President Trump, I do think there is a potential for a reset in US-Pakistan engagement that will serve both, the short & long term interest of both countries and the 500 million+ people.