Over the last two weeks since I moved back to D.C., I have met over a dozen friends and colleagues who work in the policy space, many of whom closely monitor Pakistan.
These are the four topics that define any conversation on Pakistan:
1. The Country is Imploding
There is serious concern in D.C. that things cannot continue to function in Pakistan as they have for decades. The total collapse, given the economic, social, security, and political indicators, is already underway, and the current government in Pakistan lacks the political will, mandate, and expertise to reverse it.
2. The Pakistan Army Has Lost Its Public Legitimacy
There is clear recognition in D.C. that the Pakistan Army has majorly lost public support and goodwill, and is no longer a unifying factor for the nation. This is attributed to its overt involvement in politics, corruption, and prioritization of individual interests over national interests. The current Army Chief commands very little respect or enthusiasm from the U.S. and is seen as an unlikely candidate to bring stability to the country.
3. Has Imran Khan Changed?
There is also a clear recognition since the February elections in Pakistan that Imran Khan has emerged as the key player in the country and may likely return to power soon. The main concern for the U.S. is whether Imran Khan has changed. There is a sense—or hope—within the D.C. policy community that Imran Khan might emerge as a larger leader, unifying the country instead of pursuing accountability against the political leaders and senior military officials responsible for his imprisonment and assassination attempt.
4. There is Very Little Appetite for Pakistan
Lastly, D.C. is facing severe policy lethargy. Officials are overwhelmed and exhausted by the numerous crises happening worldwide, and with Gaza, Ukraine, and elections dominating everyone's minds, it is challenging to build top leadership’s interest in Pakistan.
In my 20 years of being linked to D.C., I have never seen this level of pity, depression, and hopelessness regarding Pakistan as I have this time around. You know their worries are real when they stop caring.
Heard that certain PPP leaders believe that IK may be free before the Sept 8th rally.
I think the only change required in IK is for him to be diplomatic about following instructions from the US. Unifying national force issue is clearly solved on his part.
That is what changed everything for the US decision makers and Pak military